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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires
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Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires

机译：在模拟概率性气候变化对北极帕尔萨沼泽的影响时，评估不确定性来源

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We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were calibrated for three baseline periods, eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each technique - a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when extrapolated into changed climate conditions, so that new criteria, in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics, could be defined for determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty, with 60% of the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation. Using GAM, it was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that the area suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the period 2030-2049 and as likely (>66% probability) that the entire area becomes unsuitable by 2080-2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global warming was constrained to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate, although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for palsas.
机译：我们对影响模型不确定性的不同来源进行了分析，并将其与气候变化的概率预测相结合。描述了在Fennoscandia北部描述palsa mires（含多年冻土泥炭丘陵的泥沙复合体）的空间分布的气候包络模型，对三个基线期进行了校准，采用了八种最先进的建模技术，并对每种技术的参数不确定性进行了采样的25种版本共有600个型号。分析了这些模型对温度和降水变化的敏感性，以构造冲击响应表面。这些被用来评估模型在外推到变化的气候条件下时的行为，因此，除了传统的模型评估统计数据之外，还可以定义新的标准来确定模型的可靠性。冲击响应面还与气候变化预测相结合，以评估适合21世纪消失的帕尔萨斯地区的风险。影响模型中的结构差异似乎是不确定性的主要来源，其中60％的模型给出了难以置信的预测。通用加性建模（GAM）被认为是最可靠的模型外推技术。使用GAM，据估计，到2030年至2049年期间，适合于合掌的面积减少到基线面积的一半以下的可能性非常大（> 90％概率），整个区域变得很有可能（> 66％的概率）不适用于2080-2099年（A1B排放情景）。在缓解情景下，相对于工业化前的气候，全球变暖被限制在2°C以下，缓解了帕尔萨地区总损失的风险，尽管这也暗示了适用于帕尔萨斯地区的面积显着减少。

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