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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India
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Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

机译：印度Nilgiri山丘自然斜坡上的快速碎片滑坡对滑坡风险的定量估计

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摘要

A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10~(-1) for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10~(-2) yr~(-1) for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.
机译：提出了一种估算滑坡对生命和财产造成的风险的定量程序，并将其应用于印度南部尼尔吉里山的山区。对于位于潜在滑坡的始发区和跳动路径中处于危险中的元素，估计了风险。生命损失使用F-N曲线表示为个人风险和社会风险，而财产的直接损失以货币形式表示。从1987年至2009年期间的历史记录中，编制了1084个滑坡清单。对于切坡上的滑坡（1042个滑坡）获得了基本完整的清单，而对于自然滑坡，只有42个滑坡的信息可用。大多数滑坡为浅平移碎屑滑坡和降雨引起的泥石流滑坡。在自然斜坡上，大多数滑坡都是首次破坏。对于滑坡灾害评估，得出了以下信息：（1）根据滑坡量将自然坡上的滑坡分为三个滑坡量级，（2）通过确定滑坡的数量之间的关系获得自然滑坡上未来滑坡的数量使用Gumbel分布模型在自然坡度和切向坡度上的滑坡在不同的回报期内，（3）使用逻辑回归模型获得的滑坡易感区，以及（4）从模型拟合性能获得的易感区中的滑坡分布成功率曲线）。使用滑坡量凭经验评估滑坡的跳动距离，并基于有限的历史事件主观评估危险元素的脆弱性。对茶叶/咖啡和园艺种植园，运输基础设施，建筑物以及始发区和枯竭区人员的直接特定风险进行了单独估算。通过考虑每个震级的最小，平均和最大滑坡量以及相应的最小，平均和最大跳动距离和脆弱性值来计算风险，从而获得每个返回期的风险值范围。结果表明，年度最低，平均和最高损失总额分别约为44 000美元，136 000美元和268 000美元。人口面临的最大风险从失去一或多个生命的2.1×10〜（-1）到失去100或更多生命的6.0×10〜（-2）yr〜（-1）。获得的结果将为在Nilgiri地区规划风险减少策略提供基础。

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