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首页> 外文期刊>Nonlinear processes in geophysics >External forcing of earthquake swarms at Alpine regions: Example from a seismic meteorological network at Mt. Hochstaufen SE-Bavaria
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External forcing of earthquake swarms at Alpine regions: Example from a seismic meteorological network at Mt. Hochstaufen SE-Bavaria

机译：高寒地区地震群的外部强迫：以山顶地震气象网络为例。 Hochstaufen SE-巴伐利亚

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In the last few years, it has been shown that above-average rainfall and the following diffusion of excess water into subsurface structures is able to trigger earthquake swarms in the uppermost brittle portion of the Earth's crust. However, there is still an ongoing debate on whether the crust already needs to be in a critical-to-failure state or whether it is sufficient that water is transported rapidly within channels and veins of karst or similar geological formations to the underlying, earthquake-generating layers. Also unknown is the role of other forcing mechanisms, possible co-variables and probably necessary tectonic loading in the triggering process of earthquakes. Because of these problems, we do not use an explicit physical model but instead analyze the meteorological and geophysical data via sophisticated statistical models. ewline We are interested in the influence of a more complete set of possible forcing parameters, including the influence of synthetic earth tides, on the occurrence of earthquake swarms. In this context, regression models are the adequate tool, since the calculation of simple correlations can be confounded by the other variables. Since our outcome variable (the number of quakes) is a count, we use Poisson regression models that include the plausible assumption of a Poisson distribution for the counts. For this study, we use nearly continuous recordings of a seismic and meteorological network in the years 2002-2008 at Mt. Hochstaufen in SE-Bavaria. Our non-linear regression model reveals correlations between external forces and the triggering of earthquakes. In addition to the still dominant influence of rainfall, theoretical estimated tidal tilt show some weak influence on the swarm generation. However, the influence of the modeled trend functions shows that rain is by far not the most important forcing mechanism present in the data.
机译：在过去的几年中，已经显示出高于平均水平的降雨以及随后过量水向地下结构的扩散，能够触发地壳最上部脆性部分的地震群。但是，对于地壳是否已经处于临界至失败的状态，还是在岩溶或类似地质构造的通道和静脉内将水快速输送至潜在的地震-是否足够，仍存在争议。生成层。在地震触发过程中，其他强迫机制，可能的协变量以及可能必要的构造载荷的作用也未知。由于这些问题，我们不使用显式的物理模型，而是通过复杂的统计模型来分析气象和地球物理数据。 newline我们对一组更完整的可能强迫参数（包括合成地球潮汐的影响）对地震群发生的影响感兴趣。在这种情况下，回归模型是适当的工具，因为简单相关性的计算可能会与其他变量混淆。由于我们的结果变量（地震数）是一个计数，因此我们使用Poisson回归模型，该模型包括对计数的泊松分布的合理假设。对于这项研究，我们使用2002-2008年在Mt.的地震和气象网络的近乎连续的记录。 Hochstaufen在SE-巴伐利亚。我们的非线性回归模型揭示了外力与地震触发之间的相关性。除了降雨仍然占主导地位，理论上估计的潮汐倾斜对群的产生还显示出一些微弱的影响。但是，建模的趋势函数的影响表明，降雨并不是到目前为止数据中最重要的强迫机制。

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