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A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

机译:一种分析气候突变过程的新方法

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摘要

A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process (ACP) of PDO has a relationship with global warming.
机译:从一个州过渡到另一个州的气候系统被称为突然的气候变化。最近有关气候突变的大多数研究都集中在突变点前后发生的变化,而对系统从原始状态转变为新状态时发生的“过渡过程”却很少关注。 。在这项研究中,提出了一种新的方法来分析突然的气候变化过程。通过使用基于逻辑模型的数学模型,可以分析突变的过程,并将其分为开始力矩,结束力矩,稳定状态和不稳定过渡状态等不同阶段。同时,通过对太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)时间序列的研究测试,该方法被证实是有效的,并且这项研究的结果表明,该PDO的突变过程(ACP)与全球变暖有关。

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