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A Threat Worse Than Terror

机译:威胁大于恐怖

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A FLU PANDEMIC IS THE MOST DANGEROUS THREAT the United States faces today," says Richard Falkenrath, who until recently served in the Bush administration as deputy Homeland Security adviser. "It's a bigger threat than terrorism. In fact it's bigger than anything I dealt with when I was in government." One makes a threat assessment on the basis of two factors:the probability of the event, and the loss of life if it happened. On both counts, a pandemic ranks higher than a major terror attack, even one involving weapons of mass destruction. A crude nuclear device would probably kill hundreds of thousands. A flupandemic could easily kill millions. Whether this particular virus makes the final, fatal mutation that allows it to move from human to human, one day some virus will. The basic factor that is fueling this surge of viruses is China's growth. (China is the natural habitat of the influenza virus.) As China develops, it urbanizes, and its forests and wetlands shrink. That forces migratory birds to gather closer together—and closer to human habitation—which increases the chances of a virus spreading fromone species to the next. Also, growth means a huge rise in chicken consumption. Across thousands of homes in China every day, chickens are slaughtered in highly unhygienic ways. "Every day the chances that this virus or another such virus will move from one species to another grow," says Laurie Garrett, author of "The Coming Plague," who has been writing brilliantly on this topic for years.
机译:流感大流行是当今美国面临的最严峻威胁,”直到最近在布什政府担任国土安全部副顾问的理查德·法肯拉特(Richard Falkenrath)说:“这是比恐怖主义更大的威胁。实际上,这比我上任时要处理的任何事情都要大。”一个威胁的评估基于两个因素:事件发生的可能性和发生事件时的生命损失。甚至比大规模恐怖袭击还高,甚至涉及大规模杀伤性武器;一枚粗核装置可能杀死数十万人;大流行病可以轻易杀死数百万人;这种特定的病毒是否产生了最终的致命突变,使其能够从人类身上转移出来对人类而言,有一天会传播某种病毒,助长了这种病毒激增的基本因素是中国的增长(中国是流感病毒的自然栖息地。)随着中国的发展,城市化,森林和湿地的萎缩。迫使候鸟聚集得更近,也更接近人类的居住环境,这增加了病毒从一种物种传播到另一种物种的机会,而且,这种增长意味着鸡肉消费量的巨大增长。在中国,每天都以非常不卫生的方式宰杀鸡只。 “即将到来的瘟疫”作者劳里·加勒特(Laurie Garrett)说,“每天这种病毒或另一种此类病毒会从一种物种转移到另一种物种的机会越来越大。”

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