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Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: A case study of Shanghai, China

机译：集成系统动力学和元胞自动机模型在城市发展评估中的应用：以中国上海为例

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摘要

In the context of rapid urbanization, accurate assessment of urban growth has become increasingly necessary for understanding environmental impacts and supporting urban planning toward a sustainable development. in this paper, we present an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model not only in socio-economic driving forces analysis but also in urban spatial pattern evaluation. Shanghai city in China is selected as a case to fulfill the tasks. The major findings are summarized as follows: (1) the integrated model is proved to be competent in monitoring and projecting the dynamics of urban growth. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the urban area of Shanghai is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 3%. and amount 1474 km(2) in 2020. Spatially, the newly increased urban land is most likely to expand around the vicinity of city center or sub-centers, and mainly along a west-east axis and a north-south axis. Road network planning plays an important role in directing the development of newly urbanized land.
机译：在快速的城市化背景下，对城市增长的准确评估越来越成为了解环境影响和支持城市规划实现可持续发展的必要性。在本文中，我们不仅在社会经济驱动力分析中而且在城市空间格局评估中提出了一种集成的系统动力学和元胞自动机模型。选择中国上海市作为完成任务的案例。主要研究结果归纳如下：（1）集成模型被证明可以有效地监测和预测城市增长的动态。 （2）从2000年到2020年，上海的城市面积预计将以每年3％的速度增长。到2020年将达到1474 km（2）。在空间上，新增加的城市土地最有可能在城市中心或次中心附近扩展，并且主要沿着东西向轴和南北向轴扩展。道路网络规划在指导新城市化土地的发展中起着重要作用。

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