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首页> 外文期刊>Land Use Policy >The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon. (Special Issue: Impact assessment of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries.)
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The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon. (Special Issue: Impact assessment of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries.)

机译：商品价格和保护政策方案对亚马逊地区边远地区森林砍伐和农业土地使用的影响。 （特刊：发展中国家土地使用政策和可持续发展的影响评估。）

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Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an intensification of the conversion of forests into pasture and agricultural areas. The pavement of road BR-163 accelerates the expansion of the agricultural frontier from the state of Mato Grosso to Para, inside the Amazon. Today, the Brazilian government applies two main kinds of policies to protect the environment. First by establishing conservation units (CUs) that include an array of reserve types from natural areas to indigenous lands, and second by enforcing the Forest Code (FC), a law that limits the occupation and use of forests. Legal reserve requirements for rural properties are 80% in the Amazon rainforest, 35% in the Cerrado shrublands and 20% in other regions. However, the effectiveness of these policies relies on a fragile institutional capacity, which causes a flawed monitoring, law enforcement and control. To assess the impact of effective conservation policies on land use and deforestation by 2020, we used the LUSMAPA model in combination with two scenarios, one that included different commodity price developments and migration rates and one on the assumption of the institutional strength to uphold the conservation policies. A revision of the FC from an average 80% policy target to 60% effective implementation and disregard borders of CUs by allowing 5% deforestation in CUs, that both corresponds to a 'weak' governmental enforcement, leads to additional deforestation of 41-57%, depending on the commodity price scenario. The results of the simulations are discussed in the light of recent policy changes in Brazil.
机译：亚马逊地区的森林砍伐是由不同驱动程序之间复杂的相互作用造成的。牛肉和大豆等商品的价格以及移民的到来是最重要的因素。新公路的建设是一个关键方面，因为它们可以促进人流量和经济活动的增长，从而加剧了森林向牧场和农业地区的转化。 BR-163公路的铺面加速了农业前沿从马托格罗索州到亚马逊河内帕拉州的扩张。今天，巴西政府采用两种主要的政策来保护环境。首先是建立保护单位（CU），其中包括从自然地区到土著土地的一系列保护区，其次是通过执行《森林法》（FC），该法限制了森林的占用和使用。亚马逊雨林的农村财产法定储备要求为80％，塞拉多灌木丛为35％，其他地区为20％。但是，这些政策的有效性取决于脆弱的机构能力，这会导致监测，执法和控制方面的缺陷。为了评估到2020年有效的保护政策对土地使用和森林砍伐的影响，我们将LUSMAPA模型与两种方案结合使用，一种方案包括不同的商品价格发展和迁移率，另一种方案假设机构实力支持政策。将FC从平均80％的政策目标修订为60％的有效实施，并通过允许CU中5％的森林砍伐来无视CU的边界，这两者都对应于“弱”的政府执法，导致森林额外砍伐41-57％ ，具体取决于商品价格情况。根据巴西最近的政策变化对模拟结果进行了讨论。

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