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Assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through probabilistic modelling

机译：基于概率模型的土地利用规划评估浅层滑坡风险缓解措施

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On October 25, 2011, an extreme rainfall event affected a wide area along the coasts of Cinque Terre (eastern Liguria, northern Italy). Particularly, in the Vernazza catchment, the event triggered hundreds of shallow landslides and a debris flood that caused three casualties. Investigation of the slope stability after the event was carried out aiming at defining the most effective mitigation measures which may be adopted in future land use planning. To this objective, a susceptibility model was produced and a series of scenarios were simulated using probabilistic methods. The susceptibility model has provided information about landslide conditioning factors on which to act for reducing landslide occurrence and therefore the associated risk. The simulations have taken into consideration the following alternative types of mitigation measures: (1) restoration of abandoned terraces, (2) reforestation of abandoned terraces, (3) use of local structural measures over stretches of potentially unstable hillsides and (4) avoidance of any intervention. The advantages and the disadvantages of the proposed mitigation measures for shallow landslide risk are discussed considering the results of the simulations and taking into account their complex interaction with environmental, historical, cultural and socio-economic aspects. The results show that the most effective mitigation strategy for reducing landslide risk at short term consists of applying structural measures over potentially unstable slopes. However, a long-term programme promoting the development of agricultural or forestry practices on terraced slopes is necessary. In fact, the simulations indicate that if no measures are applied to avoid the degradation of the terraced areas, landslide areal frequency would inevitably increase.
机译：2011年10月25日，一场极端降雨事件影响了五渔村（意大利北部利古里亚东部）沿海的广大地区。特别是在韦尔纳扎（Vernazza）流域，该事件引发了数百次浅层滑坡和泥石流，造成了三人伤亡。事件发生后，对斜坡稳定性进行了调查，旨在确定最有效的缓解措施，这些措施可在未来的土地利用规划中采用。为此，建立了一个敏感性模型，并使用概率方法模拟了一系列情景。敏感性模型提供了有关滑坡调节因素的信息，可以根据这些因素来减少滑坡的发生，从而减少相关的风险。模拟已经考虑了以下替代类型的缓解措施：（1）废弃梯田的恢复;（2）废弃梯田的重新造林;（3）在可能不稳定的山坡上使用局部结构措施;（4）避免使用任何干预。考虑到模拟结果并考虑到其与环境，历史，文化和社会经济方面的复杂相互作用，讨论了拟议的缓解浅层滑坡风险的措施的利弊。结果表明，在短期内降低滑坡风险的最有效的缓解策略是在可能不稳定的斜坡上应用结构措施。但是，必须制​​定一项长期计划，以促进梯田斜坡上农业或​​林业做法的发展。实际上，模拟表明，如果不采取任何措施避免梯田退化，滑坡面频率将不可避免地增加。

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