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Promoting safety by increasing uncertainty - Implications for risk management

机译：通过增加不确定性来促进安全-对风险管理的意义

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Recent developments in risk assessment acknowledge the need to capture both quantitative and qualitative uncertainties in order to better understand and manage risks. This paper goes a step further yet by arguing that existing uncertainties do not only have to be acknowledged in order to improve risk management and safety, but that in certain circumstances deliberate increases in uncertainty are conducive to more safety. Within a general framework of managing uncertainty, balancing stability and flexibility in work processes and matching control and accountability for these processes are proposed as criteria for decisions on reducing, maintaining, and increasing uncertainty. How operational and strategic decisionmaking involved in designing, employing and monitoring high-risk systems is affected by considering increasing uncertainty as a viable option is shown for two examples: rule-making where the most appropriate rules are not necessarily those that are most restrictive and thereby uncertainty-reducing, but rather 'flexible rules' that support adaptive action by providing degrees of freedom which initially raise rather than reduce uncertainty for the decision-maker; and speaking up which entails empowering people to voice concerns and doubts about a chosen course of action in ways that allow to incorporate the added uncertainty into sounder decision-making. Finally, decision-making in risk management is discussed more generally by drawing on current debates of what constitutes rational choice. In order to prepare the ground for capitalizing on the benefits of increasing uncertainty, the necessity to reflect on fundamental beliefs concerning human rationality is emphasized. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：风险评估的最新发展认识到需要捕获定量和定性的不确定性，以便更好地理解和管理风险。本文进一步指出，不仅必须认识到现有的不确定性以改善风险管理和安全性，而且在某些情况下，故意增加不确定性有利于提高安全性。在管理不确定性的一般框架内，建议平衡工作流程的稳定性和灵活性，以及​​对这些流程进行匹配的控制和问责制，作为减少，维持和增加不确定性的决策标准。通过两个示例，说明了将不确定性作为可行的选择方案，如何影响设计，使用和监视高风险系统的运营和战略决策的影响：规则制定，其中最合适的规则不一定是限制性最强的规则，因此减少不确定性，而是“灵活规则”，通过提供自由度来支持适应性行动，这些自由度最初会提高而不是减少决策者的不确定性;要说出话，就必须赋予人们表达对所选行动方案的疑虑和疑问的能力，以便将更多的不确定性纳入合理的决策中。最后，通过对构成合理选择的最新辩论，来更全面地讨论风险管理中的决策。为了为利用不确定性增加带来的好处做好准备，强调必须反思有关人类理性的基本信念。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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