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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >Stress, Distance, Magnitude, and Clustering Influences on the Success or Failure of an Aftershock Forecast: The 2013 M 6.6 Lushan Earthquake and Other Examples
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Stress, Distance, Magnitude, and Clustering Influences on the Success or Failure of an Aftershock Forecast: The 2013 M 6.6 Lushan Earthquake and Other Examples

机译：应力，距离，震级和聚类对余震预报成败的影响：2013 M 6.6庐山地震和其他例子

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Immediately after the 12 May 2008 M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, we began calculating the static stress change on major faults surrounding the rupture zone (Parsons et al., 2008), and Toda et al. (2008) mapped out regional Coulomb stress changes (Fig. 1). The purpose was twofold: (1) to identify the most likely locations (stress increases) of dangerous aftershocks, and (2) to conduct a prospective test of stress mapping as a rapid-response forecast tool. The occurrence of the 20 April 2013M 6.6 Lushan earthquake in the Longmen fault zone near Ya'an was consistent with the prospective static stress forecast; for example, press coverage in 2008 (Kuang, 2008) stated According to their results, published in Nature on 6 July, Ya’an Thrust, Xiong Po Thrust, and Xianshuihe Fault, all near Longmen Fault where the earthquake occurred, show a notable increase in static stress changes, and therefore face a high risk of aftershocks. “The 12 May earthquake … caused grievous losses, yet its legacy includes possible large aftershocks in the near future because it increased failure stress on important faults within and around the Sichuan basin,” write the authors. However, a formal evaluation of the post-Wenchuan forecast performance by Parsons et al. (2012) was not favorable, as … we show two fully prospective static stress forecasts that have failed to reproduce spatial patterns of microseismicity … over a span of 1 to 4 years we find that forecast spatial distributions of earthquakes are violated, with clear rate increases in stable stress-shadowed zones at Kashmir, and at Wenchuan. Indeed, a visual examination of Figure 1 shows many examples of aftershocks occurring at high rates in stress-shadow (calculated decrease) areas where a decrease in seismicity rate would have been expected.
机译：2008年5月12日汶川7.9级地震发生后，我们立即开始计算破裂带周围主要断层的静态应力变化（Parsons等，2008）和Toda等。 （2008年）绘制了区域库仑应力变化图（图1）。目的是双重的：（1）确定危险余震的最可能位置（应力增加），以及（2）对应力图进行前瞻性测试，作为快速响应的预测工具。 2013年4月20日雅安附近龙门断裂带发生的芦山6.6M地震与预期静应力预测一致;例如，2008年的新闻报道（Kuang，2008）表示，根据他们的结果（7月6日发表在《自然》上），在发生地震的龙门断裂附近的雅安断裂，熊埔断裂和咸水河断裂均表现出明显的变化。静应力变化增加，因此面临余震的高风险。这组作者写道：“ 5月12日地震……造成了巨大损失，但由于在四川盆地内及周边地区的重要断层增加了破坏压力，因此在不久的将来可能会留下巨大的余震。”但是，帕森斯等人对汶川后的天气预报表现进行了正式评估。 （2012）是不利的，因为…我们显示了两个完全前瞻性的静应力预测，未能再现微震的空间格局…在1到4年的时间里，我们发现地震的预测空间分布被破坏，速率明显增加在克什米尔和汶川的稳定阴影区。的确，图1的外观检查显示了许多在预期会降低地震活动度的应力阴影（计算得出的下降）区域中发生高余震的例子。

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