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Assessing the population performance of the black rhinoceros in Kruger National Park

机译：评估克鲁格国家公园黑犀的种群数量

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摘要

Small population sizes provide several challenges to conservation managers seeking to ensure species persistence and illustrating conservation success. Black rhinoceros, Diceros bicornis minor, epitomizes these challenges. During October 2008 we used block surveys, estimates of availability and observer bias to calculate landscape-specific black rhino abundances in the southern parts of Kruger National Park, South Africa. We assigned age and sex to individuals, extracted an age distribution, and estimated survival and fecundity given the population growth derived from historical strip transects. The block counts, corrected for 90.3% availability bias with observers missing 3.8% of those, predicted that 627 (95% CI: 588-666) black rhinos resided in the study area. The population increased at 6.75% per annum, the result of high survival and an estimated inter-calving interval of 2.45 years. Age distributions and population growth predicts that subadult males and females have the lowest annual survival, while dependent calves and adults have the highest annual survival. Precise estimates can be obtained with a 20% study area coverage using block counts. This gives coefficient of variances allowing detection of 5% growth from surveys every two years. Detecting 2% annual decline requires bi-annual surveys for 6 years. Our results illustrate that black rhinos are performing well in Kruger National Park.
机译：小种群数量给寻求确保物种持久性并说明保护成功的保护管理者提出了若干挑战。黑犀牛（小黑犀）代表了这些挑战。在2008年10月，我们使用区块调查，可用性估算和观察者偏差来计算南非克鲁格国家公园南部特定景观的黑犀牛丰度。我们根据个体的年龄和性别进行分类，提取年龄分布，并根据历史条带得出的人口增长估算生存率和繁殖力。修正了90.3％的可利用性偏见，而观察者却少了3.8％的方块数，预测有627头（95％CI：588-666）黑犀牛居住在研究区域。高存活率和产犊间隔估计为2.45年，使人口以每年6.75％的速度增长。年龄分布和人口增长预测，成年雄性和雌性的最低年生存率，而成年犊牛和成年的年生存率最高。可以使用块计数在研究区域覆盖率为20％的情况下获得精确的估计值。这样就给出了方差系数，从而每两年可以从调查中检测到5％的增长。要检测2％的年度下降，需要每两年进行一次为期6年的调查。我们的结果表明，黑犀牛在克鲁格国家公园表现良好。

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