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Mid-Piacenzian mean annual sea surface temperature analysis for data-model comparisons

机译：数据模型比较中的Piacenzian中旬年平均海面温度分析

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摘要

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for groundtruthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form of mean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Cli-mate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data, Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a sin-gle mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of the multiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same en-vironmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model intercomparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.
机译：全球气候系统的数值模型是用于了解和预测未来全球变暖形式的气候破坏的主要工具。上新世被认为是最接近的，尽管是不完美的，类似于本世纪末预期的气候条件，这为地面模型结果提供了独立的上新世数据集。由于大多数气候模型的输出都是以年平均水平的形式产生的，因此我们介绍了USGS PRISM3全球气候伙伴重建的派生形式，该重建过程将海面温度（SST）的多个代理整合到单个地表温度异常中。我们根据动物和花卉组合数据，Mg / Ca值和烯酮不饱和指数分析温度估算值，以最准确地描述每个PRISM站点的单年平均SST异常（上新世减去现代），理解到多个代理不一定显示出一致性。多重代理方法的强大之处在于它的多样性，因为没有两个代理可以测量相同的环境变量。该数据集可用于验证气候模型的输出，用作模型比对的起点以及量化受扰物理集合中上新世模型预测中的不确定性。

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