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首页> 外文期刊>Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology: An International Journal for the Geo-Sciences >Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
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Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

机译：Piacenzian中暖期海表温度：PRISM3和HadCM3的比较

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摘要

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement. In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data-model anomaly exceeds 2 °C 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from +. 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land-sea mask used in the model. Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data-model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.
机译：必须记录当前的气候模型在模拟过去的气候中表现如何，以对它们预测未来状况的能力有信心。我们提出了首次全球性的上新世海表温度（SST）估计值的深度比较，该估计值来自耦合的海洋-大气气候模型实验和基于代理数据的SST重建。这样可以识别需要改进气候模型和代理数据集的区域。通常，模型产生的SST异常与由可用数据形成的异常之间的拟合度非常好。我们将讨论重点放在数据模型异常超过2°C的三个区域上1）在高纬度北太平洋，系统模型误差可能会导致异常过冷。同样，上新世较深的跃层可能会引起加州边缘的分歧。模型中的上升流太强或建模的温跃层不够深。 2）在北大西洋，该模型预测基于数据的变暖趋势中心的降温，随着纬度从+开始稳定增加。 1.5°C至> + 6°C。之所以可能出现差异，是因为建模的北大西洋洋流与实际相比过于区域性，而上新世西部科迪勒拉山脉的高度降低进一步加剧了这种差异。此外，该模型在较高纬度上使用现代测深法可能导致该模型低估了较暖的地表水向北向北极的渗透。 3）最后，尽管数据和模型在整个南大洋地区都表现出良好的总体一致性，但由于模型中使用了现代陆地海面遮罩，因此一些地方出现了偏移。其他考虑因素可能会导致许多中等程度的数据模型异常，例如校准气候之间的差异，季节性周期的过度简化以及SST代理之间的差异（即季节性和水深）。来自数据稀疏和区域重要区域的新SST估算将大大增强我们判断模型性能的能力。

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