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WMD Forecasting in Historical and Contemporary Perspective

机译：历史与现代视角下的大规模杀伤性武器预测

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This paper reviews a select set of past proliferation-related forecasts. These 'historical' forecasts were performed between 1957 and 1990. They addressed nuclear proliferation most prominently but also included forecasts of Soviet strategic forces developments and wider missile proliferation. These forecasts also covered a broad spectrum of sources: declassified U.S. intelligence estimates, official memos, assessments by 'special commissions,' think tank reports, and writings by individual experts. Each forecast sought to project future proliferation-related developments as well as the drivers of those trends. The paper briefly reviews the main features of the forecasts and then presents a series of potential guidelines for future proliferation forecasting efforts based on the record of past forecasts. These guidelines are intended to support ASCO's exploration of options for developing a forecasting capability as part of its threat anticipation mission and in support of the wider threat reduction activities of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

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