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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >An Analysis of the Automobile Market: Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles. Volume II - Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model
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An Analysis of the Automobile Market: Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles. Volume II - Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

机译：汽车市场分析：汽车需求长期决定因素的模拟。第二卷 - 使用沃顿EFa汽车需求模型进行仿真分析

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An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of 'desired' (equilibrium) stock is introduced. 'Desired stock' and its composition by size-class are related to numerous economic and demographic variables using cross-section data. Among them is a new 'capitalized cost per mile' measure, which expresses all costs over time relative to miles driven, discounted back to the present. New registrations, total and by class, and scrappage are found to be strongly related to 'desired stock' relative to actual stock, with other influences operating as 'speed of adjustment' factors. Fuel efficiency is analyzed in detail, relating mpg by class to physical vehicle characteristics and technological developments. Purchase prices and options expenditures are analyzed and all cost measures distinguished by foreign vs domestic origin as well as by size-class. Volume I summarizes and describes the study, and contains a forecast through 2000. Volume II contains extensive simulation analysis, with public policy implications. Volume III contains data and methodology appendices.

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