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Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate

机译：货币政策与自然失业率的不确定性

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摘要

Recent empirical research concerning the relationship between inflation and211u001eunemployment, a relationship that is central to the design of monetary policy, 211u001ehas been characterized by an active debate about the precision of relevant 211u001eparameter estimates such as the estimated natural unemployment rate. This paper 211u001estudies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the 211u001enatural rate and the short-run in inflation-unemployment tradeoff in a simple 211u001emacroeconomic model. Two conflicting motives drive the optimal policy. icy. In 211u001ethe static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the 211u001epolicymaker to move more cautiously than she would if she knew the true 211u001eparameters. In the dynamic version, uncertainty also motivates an element of 211u001eexperimentation in policy. I find that the optimal policy that balances the 211u001ecautionary and activist motives typically exhibits gradualism, i.e. it is less 211u001eaggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur 211u001ewhen uncertainty is very high and inflation close to target.

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