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首页> 外文期刊>The Manchester school >COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY
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COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY

机译：应对不确定性：自然失业率和英国货币政策的历史和实时估算

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摘要

The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfac-tual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such 'cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing.
机译：该论文推导并比较了英国自然失业率的历史和实时估计，并表明实时估计充满了噪音，应该持怀疑态度。一项反事实演习表明，在1990年代的大部分时间里，英格兰银行都相对成功地跟踪了自然利率的变化，尽管存在一定的认可滞后性，有时这可能导致过度谨慎的政策。对货币政策委员会会议纪要的仔细审查表明，这种“谨慎”应被视为对货币政策所面临的实时信息局限性的认识的证据。

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