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COVID-19 Trend Estimation in the Elderly Italian Region of Sardinia

机译：Covid-19撒丁岛大意地区的趋势估计

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December 2019 saw a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from China quickly spread globally. Currently, COVID-19, defined as the new pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), has reached over 750,000 confirmed cases worldwide. The virus began to spread in Italy from the 22nd February, and the number of related cases is still increasing. Furthermore, given that a relevant proportion of infected people need hospitalization in Intensive Care Units, this may be a crucial issue for National Healthcare System's capacity. WHO underlines the importance of specific disease regional estimates. Because of this, Italy aimed to put in place proportioned and controlled measures, and to guarantee adequate funding to both increase the number of ICU beds and increase production of personal protective equipment. Our aim is to investigate the current COVID-19 epidemiological context in Sardinia region (Italy) and to estimate the transmission parameters using a stochastic model to establish the number of infected, recovered, and deceased people expected. Based on available data from official Italian and regional sources, we describe the distribution of infected cases during the period between 2nd and 15th March 2020. To better reflect the actual spread of COVID-19 in Sardinia based on data from 15th March (first Sardinian declared outbreak), two Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) models have been developed, describing the best and worst scenarios. We believe that our findings represent a valid contribution to better understand the epidemiological context of COVID-19 in Sardinia. Our analysis can help health authorities and policymakers to address the right interventions to deal with the rapidly expanding health emergency.
机译：2019年12月，从中国迅速蔓延地看到了一部小型冠状病毒（Covid-19）。目前，Covid-19被定义为世界卫生组织（世卫组织）的新流行，已达到全球750,000多种确认案件。病毒开始于2月22日从意大利传播，相关案件的数量仍在增加。此外，鉴于受感染者的相关比例需要在重症监护单位中住院，这可能是国家医疗保健系统的能力至关重要的问题。谁强调了特定疾病区域估计的重要性。因此，意大利旨在提出比例和控制的措施，并保证适当的资金来增加ICU床位的数量，增加个人防护设备的生产。我们的目标是调查当前的Covid-19在撒丁岛地区（意大利）的流行病学背景，并使用随机模型估计传输参数，以确定所预期的感染，恢复和死亡人数的数量。基于来自官方意大利和地区来源的可用数据，我们描述了在2020年3月2日期间的第2和15日期间的受感染病例的分布。为了更好地反映3月15日的数据（第一届撒丁岛宣称的第一个撒丁岛）的Covid-19在撒丁岛的实际传播爆发），已经开发出了两个敏感传染性的死亡（SARD）模型，描述了最佳和最差的情景。我们认为，我们的调查结果代表了更好地了解撒丁岛Covid-19的流行病学背景的有效贡献。我们的分析可以帮助卫生当局和政策制定者解决合适的干预措施，以处理迅速扩大的健康紧急情况。

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