Russian airstrikes turned the tide of the conflict in favor of the regime of Bashar al Assad. Moscow announced a reduction in its military presence in Syria in March 2016 but has maintained its infrastructure in the country while continuing to build up Assad’s forces. The cessation of hostilities achieved through a deal between the United States and Russia has lessened the number of attacks against civilians and curbed fighting, but rebel areas remain under siege. At the same time, Russia has been keen to display its interest in an international, cooperative solution. Regard-less of whether Moscow’s intentions are sincere or mere lip service, the peace talks underway in Geneva, could provide Germany and the European Union with means to bolster the ceasefire. They should push for a solution that curbs the security sector and other tools of repression, which are dominated by Assad’s Alawite minority, rather than for a mere change of personnel at the leadership level. Without such substantial change, the dynamics prompting the influx of refugees is unlikely to change substantially. (Autorenreferat)
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机译：俄罗斯的空袭使冲突的潮流转向了巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al Assad）政权。莫斯科于2016年3月宣布减少在叙利亚的军事存在，但在继续建立阿萨德部队的同时维持了该国的基础设施。通过美国和俄罗斯达成的协议，停止了敌对行动，减少了对平民的袭击和遏制的战斗，但叛军地区仍在围困。同时，俄罗斯一直渴望表现出对国际合作解决方案的兴趣。不管莫斯科的意图是真诚的还是仅仅是口头服务，在日内瓦进行的和平谈判都可以为德国和欧洲联盟提供加强停火的手段。他们应该寻求一种解决方案，以遏制以阿萨德的阿拉维派少数民族为主导的安全部门和其他镇压工具，而不是仅仅改变领导层的人员。没有这种实质性的改变，促使难民涌入的动力就不可能有实质性的改变。 （自动转介）
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