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首页> 外文OA文献 >'The Drier the Land, The Higher the Chance?: An Examination of the Relationship Between Water Availability and Civil Conflict and Its U.S. National Security Implications'
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'The Drier the Land, The Higher the Chance?: An Examination of the Relationship Between Water Availability and Civil Conflict and Its U.S. National Security Implications'

机译：“土地越干燥，机会就越高？：对水资源供应和内乱之间的关系及其对美国国家安全的影响的检验”

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摘要

This thesis uses quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the relationship between water availability and civil conflict through an ethnic conflict lens. It further applies the trends observed in this relationship to United States National Security concerns to provide real-world applications of the knowledge gained. Consisting of quantitative and qualitative parts, this thesis uses logit analysis of data to test for significance in the water-conflict relationship then conducts a case study on Israel and Palestine, Darfur, and ISIS in Iraq to examine how water impacts conflict in true situations. udThis thesis posits that increased measures of ethnic divisiveness, monopolization of power, autocratic rule, and shorter period of peace will inform the relationship that greater supply, demand, or structurally induced water scarcity will increase the likelihood of violent or nonviolent conflict onset. Although no reliable significant relationships were found, this result indicates that water is more likely an indirect contributor to conflict through the social processes it initiates than a consistently measurable cause of conflict. Through the case studies, this thesis finds that hydrological factors, lack of adaptation ability to environmental changes, information problems, and social processes triggered by water issues are indications that water may be contributing to conflict potential in real cases.udTherefore, this thesis concludes that although statistical relationships between water scarcity and conflict outcomes eluded the analysis, there are observable instances in which water issues contributed indirectly to creating conditions favorable for conflict. In terms of United States national security interests, this conclusion necessitates that in order to predict and prevent water-related insecurity and instability, it is essential that the United States take initiative to promote knowledge of future environmental changes, their impacts on water and social stability, and effective adaptations for unclear future conditions.
机译：本文采用定量和定性的方法，从种族冲突的角度考察了水资源供应与内乱之间的关系。它还将这种关系中观察到的趋势应用于美国国家安全问题，以提供所获得知识的实际应用。本论文由数量和质量两部分组成，使用logit数据分析来检验水冲突关系中的重要性，然后对以色列和以色列，巴勒斯坦，达尔富尔和ISIS进行案例研究，以研究水在真实情况下如何影响冲突。 ud本论文认为，增加种族分歧，权力垄断，专制统治和较短的和平时期的措施将使这种关系告知，更大的供应，需求或结构性的水短缺将增加发生暴力或非暴力冲突的可能性。尽管没有找到可靠的显着关系，但该结果表明，与通过持续可测量的冲突原因相比，水更可能是通过其引发的社会过程间接导致冲突的因素。通过案例研究，本论文发现水文因素，对环境变化的适应能力不足，信息问题以及由水问题引发的社会过程都表明水可能在实际案例中助长了冲突的可能性。 ud因此，本文得出结论。尽管分析缺乏水短缺与冲突结果之间的统计关系，但在可观察到的实例中，水问题间接地为创造有利于冲突的条件作出了贡献。就美国的国家安全利益而言，该结论使得为了预测和预防与水有关的不安全和不稳定，至关重要的是，美国必须采取主动行动，促进人们对未来环境变化及其对水和社会稳定的影响的认识。 ，并针对未来不确定的条件进行有效调整。

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    Perkins Sailer E.;

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  • 年度 2017
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  • 正文语种 en
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