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首页> 外文会议>IEEE PES Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference >Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) combined with principal component analysis and qualitative analysis on spatial demand forecasting for main development area in transmission planning
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Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) combined with principal component analysis and qualitative analysis on spatial demand forecasting for main development area in transmission planning

机译：宏观需求空间法（MDSA）与主成分分析和定性分析相结合的输电规划中主要开发区域的空间需求预测

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Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with principal component analysis (PCA) and qualitative analysis (QA) to determine main development area in region and the variables that affecting electricity demand in there. Main development area is an area with industrial domination as a driver of economic growth. The electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricity consumer. However, they will be equal for main development areas. The variables have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for main development areas at South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra System is still in the range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach in transmission planning that considering location.
机译：宏观需求空间法（MDSA）是在考虑位置的长期电力需求预测中引入的一种方法。它将用于区域电力基础设施建设的输电规划和政策决策。在模型中，MDSA结合主成分分析（PCA）和定性分析（QA）来确定区域的主要开发区域以及影响该区域电力需求的变量。主要开发区是一个以工业为主的地区，它是经济增长的驱动力。电力需求驱动因素变量对于电力消费者的类型是不同的。但是，对于主要的开发区域，它们将是平等的。通过使用PCA可以减少没有明显影响的变量。生成的模型经过测试以评估它是否仍在电力需求预测的置信度范围内。在案例研究中，作为苏门答腊系统一部分的南苏门答腊子系统主要开发区域生成的模型仍处于置信度范围内。因此，可以将MDSA提议为考虑位置的传输规划的替代方法。

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