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THE FUTURE ROLE OF CO_2 CAPTURE IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR

机译:Co_2捕获在电力部门的未来作用

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This paper analyses the role of CO_2 capture and storage (CCS) for 15 world regions, using the IEA Secretariat's Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model. This bottom-up model describes global energy supply and demand for the period 2000-2050. The results suggest that if CCS technologies meet development targets and CO_2 abatement policies are introduced at a level of 50$/t CO_2, fossil fuelled power plants with CO_2 capture will represent up to 21% of global electricity production by 2030 and 37% by 2050. Deployment of CCS technologies in the electricity sector will result in increased fossil fuel use for two reasons: availability of CCS allows for wider utilisation of fossil fuels for power generation and more fuel is needed to cover CCS energy requirements. By 2050, coal use will increase by up to 175% in comparison to scenarios without CCS technologies but with similar policy incentives. Renewables grow at a high rate, but less than in the scenario without CCS. Slightly slower growth of renewables in the scenario with CCS available does not mean higher CO_2 emissions. On the contrary, in 2050, the energy system with CCS available emits 7.9 Gt CO_2 per year less than the same system without CCS available (both systems operate with US$50/t CO_2 policy incentives). Moreover, if reduced externalities are included in calculations, the total system costs with CCS available are lower than for the system without CCS. If cumulative emissions are fixed in the calculations, the undiscounted cumulative system costs for a scenario with CCS are 39% lower than for a scenario without CCS. This means that the introduction of CCS brings both environmental and economic benefits if CO_2 is given a price. Various sensitivity analyses show the robustness of CCS in the policy mix. Thus, this study recommends that policies be further developed so CCS technology can be applied in practice.
机译:本文分析了CO_2捕获和封存(CCS)的15对世界各地区的作用,使用IEA秘书处的能源技术展望(ETP)模型。这种自下而上的模型描述了2000 - 2050年期间全球能源供应和需求。研究结果表明,如果CCS技术实现发展目标和CO_2减排政策都在50水平推出$ /吨CO_2,化石燃料发电厂与CO_2捕获将代表了全球发电量的21%,到2030年37%到2050年在电力部门将提高化石燃料的使用,原因有两个CCS技术的部署:CCS的可用性允许用于发电和更多的燃料是需要盖CCS能源需求的化石燃料的使用更广泛。到2050年,煤炭的使用将高达175%相比,方案,而无需CCS技术,但类似的政策激励增加。可再生能源增长以高速率,但低于无CCS的情况。与CCS提供的方案可再生能源的稍微慢一点的增长并不意味着高CO_2排放。相反,在2050年,与CCS可发出每年7.9亿吨CO_2小于无可用CCS同一系统中的能量系统(两个系统新台币$ 1,500元/吨CO_2政策激励经营)。此外,如果减少外部被包括在计算中,与现有CCS系统总成本比没有CCS系统低。如果累积排放量是固定的计算,对于CCS的情形未贴现累积的系统成本比无CCS的情景低39%。这意味着引进CCS带来的环境和经济利益,CO_2给出价格。各种敏感性分析表明在政策组合CCS的鲁棒性。因此,这项研究建议的政策得到进一步的发展使CCS技术可以在实践中应用。

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