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Early warning model for risks of energy prices and energy price ratios in China's energy engineering

机译：中国能源工程能源价格与能源价格比风险的预警模型

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摘要

Along with the rapid increase of China's energy demands, the energy engineering is facing more and more complex risks. The present research on the early warning methods of energy price risk mainly consider single prices and fail to analyze the energy price system integrally. In this paper, an early warning model of China's energy price is analyzed from the aspects of price fluctuation and price ratio structure through fitting the risk distributions of indices and applying the CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium). And Based on analyzing China's warning degrees of energy price ratios in the year 2015, it is found that the price ratios between electricity and crude oil are in the state of 'dangerous', while others are in the state of 'highly dangerous', including the price ratios between refined oil and crude oil, between the natural gas of resident and crude oil, between natural gas and coal and between electricity and coal.
机译：随着中国能源需求的快速增长，能源工程面临越来越复杂的风险。目前对能源价格风险预警方法的研究主要考虑单价，并未完整地分析能源价格体系。本文通过拟合指数的风险分布和应用CGE模型（可计算一般均衡），从价格波动和价格比结构方面分析了中国能源价格的预警模型。基于2015年中国警告中国的能源价格比率的基于，发现电力和原油之间的价格比在“危险”状态，而其他国家则处于“高度危险”状态，包括成品油和原油之间的价格比，居民天然气与原油之间，天然气和煤与电力和煤炭之间。

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