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Extreme hydrological phenomena in the forest steppe and steppe zones of Ukraine under the climate change

机译：在气候变化下，乌克兰森林草原和草原区的极端水文现象

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Nowadays, during the period of the global climate change, scientists around the world have noticed an increased incidence of extreme natural disasters. The authors of the study suggested methods of using climate change as a part of a genetic model of maximal floods runoff. This model makes possible the introducing of "climate changes" directly through the maximal stocks of snow and precipitation during the spring flood and runoff coefficients. The object of study is the basin of the Southern Bug - one of the largest rivers in Ukraine, which flows within two geographical zones - forest-steppe and steppe. Overall results using scenario RCP 4.5 showed a decrease of runoff by the end of 2050 from 20 % in the north part of the basin (the forest-steppe zone) to 50% - in the south (the steppe part of basin). On the other hand, the characteristics of minimal river flow in the Southern Bug basin - winter and summer low waters had been analyzed. One option for low water flow simulation is to study the connection between the drought index (e.g. SPEI) and the minimal water. Studies show that such correlation exists, so knowing the forecast of drought index it is possible to project the value of minimal water discharge, which is the object of the research.
机译：如今，在全球气候变化期间，世界各地的科学家们已经注意到极端自然灾害的发病率增加。该研究的作者建议使用气候变化作为最大洪水径流遗传模型的一部分的方法。该模型可以通过春天洪水和径流系数的最大雪和降水的最大股，直接引入“气候变化”。研究对象是南部臭虫的盆地 - 乌克兰最大的河流之一，在两个地理区域内流动 - 森林 - 草原和草原。使用场景RCP 4.5的总体结果表明，在南部盆地（森林 - 草原区）北部的2050年末期将径流量减少到南部50％（盆地的Steppe部分）。另一方面，分析了南部臭虫盆地 - 冬季和夏季低水中最小河流的特点。低水流模拟的一种选择是研究干旱指数（例如SPEI）与最小水之间的连接。研究表明，这种相关性存在，因此了解干旱指数的预测，可以将最小排水的价值投影，这是研究的目的。

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