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首页> 外文会议>Joint annual meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science and the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology >Application of Different Concentration-Response Functions to Estimate the Societal Benefits of Reducing PM2.5 and NOx Emissions
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Application of Different Concentration-Response Functions to Estimate the Societal Benefits of Reducing PM2.5 and NOx Emissions

机译：不同浓度响应函数的应用来估计减少PM2.5和NOx排放的社会效益

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Objective: We assess the societal benefits of reducing air pollutant emissions that contribute to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (03), and nitrogen dioxide (N02) exposure and public health impacts. Recent evidence suggests that nonlinear, multi-pollutant concentration-response (C-R) models are more appropriate than traditional, linear forms used in epidemiology. We examine the implications of alternate C-R models in an emissions reduction framework. Methods: We integrate C-R models for non-accidental mortality due to PM2.5, 03, and N02 into the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). This sophisticated atmospheric model and its adjoint tool allow us to trace public health impacts back to sources of pollutant emissions. We compare the monetized public health benefits of reducing emissions from sources across Central Canada at a 12 km resolution for July 2010. We apply C-R models (single or multipollutant and linear or nonlinear) derived from the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). Results: Our preliminary results indicate significant and widespread benefits of PM2.5 and NOx (NO + NO2) emissions control, particularly in major urban areas of Central Canada. We find benefits ranging from $400,000-800,000 per ton of reduction in PM2.5 from sources in Toronto, while NOx control for the same location entails benefits of $2,000-200,000/ton depending on the choice of C-R model. Nonlinear models consistently produce larger benefit estimates than their linear counterparts. We estimate coefficients of variation based solely on the choice of C-R model to be 0.4-0.6 for PM2.5 and 0.6-1.6 for NOx. Conclusions: Our results show that the public health benefits of emission reductions are highly sensitive to C-R specification, and that traditional C-R models may significantly underestimate the benefits of air pollution controls. Further research is needed to determine the most appropriate C-R model to support public policy.
机译：目的：我们评估减少导致周围细颗粒物空气污染物的排放物（PM2.5），臭氧（O3）和二氧化氮（NO 2）曝光和公众健康影响的社会效益。最近的证据表明非线性，多污染物浓度 - 响应（C-R）模型是比在流行病学中使用的传统的，直链的形式比较合适。我们检查备用C-R模型在排放减少框架的影响。方法：我们整合C-R模型非意外死亡，由于PM2.5，03，和N02进入社区多尺度空气质量模式（CMAQ）。这个复杂的大气模型及其伴随的工具使我们能够追踪公众健康的影响回污染物排放源。我们比较了货币化减少来自加拿大各地的中央来源的排放在12公里分辨率的为2010年7月的公众健康的好处我们应用从2001年的加拿大人口普查健康和环境的队列衍生CR模型（单个或multipollutant和线性或非线性）（CanCHEC） 。结果：我们的初步结果表明，PM2.5和氮氧化物（NO + NO2）排放控制的显著和广泛的利益，特别是在加拿大中部的主要城市地区。我们发现收益从每吨减少从多伦多来源PM2.5的400,000-800,000 $，而氮氧化物控制的同一位置需要根据C-R模型的选择2,000-200,000 $ /吨的好处。非线性模型持续产生较大的收益估计比线性对应。我们估计，仅在C-R模型的选择基于变异系数为0.4〜0.6为PM2.5和0.6-1.6氮氧化物。结论：我们的研究结果表明，减少排放对公共健康的好处是C-R规格高度敏感，传统的C-R车型可显著低估空气污染控制的好处。需要进一步研究，以确定最合适的C-R模型来支持公共政策。

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