Objective To explore the changes of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and its influencing factors in alcohol consumption, and establish a mathematical model of BAC metabolism. Methods The BAC was measured by using the gas chromatograph and the internal standard curve method, and the data was analyzed by SPSS20.0 and R and the mathematical model was established. Results On average women BAC elimination rate is 9.54mg/100mL/h, the average male BAC elimination rate is 12.19mg/100mL/h, women elimination rate less than men, and BAC elimination rate is related to gender of medium and related to the weight of strong, has nothing to do with age. According to the results of the mixed effects model, the mixed effect model can predict the BAC accurately, the mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.60mg/100mL, and the data is analyzed by the decision tree method, and MAE is 9.99mg/100mL. Conclusion BAC elimination rate was associated with sex and weight after drinking, and the random-effect mixing model could be accurately inferred by time, alcohol consumption, sex and weight.%目的 探索饮酒后人体内血醇浓度(BAC)变化及其影响因素,建立 BAC代谢的数学模型.方法 采用顶空气相色谱氢火焰离子化检测器和内标曲线法测量酒后人体内的BAC,利用SPSS20.0和R软件对数据进行相关性分析并建立数学模型.结果 女性的平均BAC消除速率为9.54mg/100mL/h,男性的平均BAC消除速率为12.19mg/100mL/h,女性消除速率小于男性,并且BAC消除速率与性别中等相关,与体重强相关,与年龄无关.通过构建混合效应模型可以准确的预测BAC,该模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.60mg/100mL,其次利用决策树分析数据,其MAE为9.99mg/100mL.结论 饮酒后人体内BAC消除速率与性别、体重有关,通过时间、饮酒量、性别、体重建立混合效应模型可以准确推断BAC.
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