以杭州市城区为研究对象，以1984年、1994年和2005年3期 MSS/TM 遥感影像为数据源，利用遥感技术获取杭州市城区扩展信息，从扩展形态、扩展趋势、扩展速度、扩展强度、动态度、人口-城市扩展指数等方面分析了城区扩展的时空变化特征，结合社会经济数据，构建主成分分析模型，探讨杭州市城区扩展的主要驱动力．结果表明，空间上，杭州市城区除西南方向外，其他方向均扩展显著；外形上，杭州市呈现扇形扩展为主，并伴有轴向延伸；未来向南和东北方向扩展迅速．规模强度上，1984-1994年城区扩展面积的年平均绝对增加值为6.58 km2，1994-2005年为9.67 km2，其扩展速度在加快；以杭州市区土地总面积为基准，其扩展强度变快．动态度和模式以上一时期的面积作为基准，其扩展速率变慢；人口-城市扩展指数表明杭州市城区扩展集约程度有所提高．利用主成分分析法归纳出经济增长、城区建设、人口增长、交通发展为杭州市城区扩展的重要驱动因子，4个因子对城区扩展的驱动作用逐年增强．%Urban boundary information of Hangzhou is extracted from land sat MSS (1984) and TM (1994 and 2005 ) images with supervised classification . Based on the urban growth form , trend , speed , intensity , dynamic attitude , the population-urban grow th index , etc , this paper analyzes the characteristics of urban spatial-temporal change in Hangzhou City , Zhejiang Province . Combined with social and economic statistical data , this paper further explores the driving factors of Hangzhou urban expansion by PCA model . The result shows that , in addition to the southwest direction of Hangzhou , other direction is remarkable expansion ; the appearance of Hangzhou urban belongs to “fan-shaped expansion” with “axial extension” . Future expansion towards Xiaoshan and Yuhang district will be rapid . Annual average absolute increase of urban expansion area is 6.58 km2 from 1984 to 1994 , and 9.67 km2 from 1995 to 2005 . Its expansion speed is accelerated ; if takes the total land area of Hangzhou urban as a benchmark , expansion intensity is faster . If takes the area of the former period as the benchmark , expansion rate is in slow down ; population-urban grow th index shows that Hangzhou urban expansion of intensive degree is increasing . The paper reduces 15 major social and economic factors which influence Hangzhou urban expansion to four comprehensive factors using PCA . That economic and industrial development is the first driving force , economic grow th is the most fundamental and important factor which cause Hangzhou urban expansion , the development of industries especially industrial structure change , to some extent , accelerates urban expansion . Urban basic construction is the second driving force , which is direct driving force leaded to urban expansion . The development of urban population is the third driving force , which is an original driver of Hangzhou urban expansion . Traffic development is the forth driving power , which has directionality role in Hangzhou urban expansion and influences the external form of Hangzhou urban . In addition , the result shows that their driving role in Hangzhou urban expansion has been enhanced each year by the analysis of the comprehensive score of the four comprehensive driving forces .
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