鉴于综合利用水利项目的准公益性以及民间资本的合理投资回报，一般对其经营性设施采用BOT模式。经营性设施BOT项目特许权价值决定了公益设施与经营设施的投资分摊，科学合理确定特许权价值是BOT项目顺利开展的关键。构建特许权价值决策模型，运用系统动力学识别影响水利BOT项目特许权价值的不确定因素，并在贴现率风险校正的基础上，运用蒙特卡洛法模拟特许经营期的NPV反算得到水利BOT项目特许权价值，通过具体案例验证了该方法科学合理，可为决策提供参考依据。%Generally ,based on the quasi commonweal of water conservancy project and reasonable return on the invest-ment of private capital ,the BOT model is adopted in its operating facilities during the comprehensive utilization of water conservancy ,the reasonable franchise value is the key to develop the BOT project ,and the BOT project franchise value determines the investment apportionment of public facilities and business facilities .First of all ,the franchise value deci-sion model is built ,the uncertain factors influencing the water conservancy BOT project’s franchise value are identified by using system dynamics method ,and the Monte-Carlo method is applied to simulate the NPV of concession period ,then the BOT franchise value of water conservancy project is gained .Finally ,the resonability of this method is verified through a concrete case ,which could provide a reference for decision making .
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