Based on the “single” and “double” family types data, this paper predicted possible fertility level by simulating the fertility behavor under the universal two⁃child policy on Hubei province using the method of parity progression ratio. The results show that if the universal two⁃child policy adjustment in 2016, 52621 second⁃child will be born a year in Hubei province, accounting for 7�41% of total births in Hubei province in 2014;there will be 139262 second⁃child births within three years. Comparison of urban and rural areas implied the rural second⁃child birth accounted for nearly 60% of the new second⁃child birth fertility. Women ’ s second⁃child fertility behavior will form the accumulation of fertility in rural areas and women’ s fertility accumulation is not serious for the women elder than 40 .%以2014年湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的包括“单独”、“双独”方面的数据为基础，描述了生育政策调整下被压抑的生育潜能释放的规律性和用孩次递进比的方法预测“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为，与意愿分析方法相互比照，丰富了当下生育政策下生育行为预测研究。从分析结果可以看出，假定2016年“全面二孩”生育政策调整，湖北省第一年内会新增二孩出生量52621人，占湖北省2014年总出生量的7�41％；三年内最低会新增139262人的二孩生育量。城乡对比发现，农村新增二孩生育占到将近六成，且由抢生而导致的堆积主要集中在农村，40岁后的高龄抢生情况不严重。
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