研究制造业采购经理指数和生产者价格指数之间的协整关系, 具有一定的理论意义.文中选取我国公开发布的这两个指数, 运用统计学知识, 选取2005年1月至2017年11月作为研究期间, 对VAR模型进行进一步修正与完善, 研究我国制造业PMI与PPI之间的因果以及长、短期均衡关系.论文研究结果指出了制造业PMI和PPI之间的格兰杰因果关系, 研究表明制造业PMI是PPI的格兰杰成因, 而PPI不是制造业PMI的格兰杰成因;研究表明制造业PMI与PPI存在长期的均衡关系, 从短期来看, 当PPI的波动偏离长期均衡状态时, 制造业PMI会以负向修正的方式将其修复至均衡状态.%The paper studied the correlation between the Manufacturing PMI and PPI. In this paper, by using the statistical knowledge, the two publicly released indexes in China were selected as the research period (from January 2005 to November 2017) to further revise and improve the VAR model and study the causal, long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between Manufacturing PMI and PPI. The paper pointed out the granger causality between Manufacturing PMI and PPI, and the research indicated that the Manufacturing PMI was the granger cause of PPI, while the PPI was not the granger cause of the Manufacturing PMI. At the same time, the paper pointed out the long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between Manufacturing PMI and PPI. And the research indicated that there is an equilibrium relationship between Manufacturing PMI and PPI in the long term. In the short term, when the fluctuation of PPI deviates from the long-term equilibrium state, the Manufacturing PMI will restore it to the equilibrium state by a negative way.
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