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北京新机场对周边区域交通影响的预测

         

摘要

机场作为重要的交通辐射中心,对周边交通网络具有重要的影响.在首都国际机场2006年—2015年连续时空尺度上的机场运行数据和周边交通网络数据的支撑下,根据北京新机场运行数据,引入神经网络预测模型,对北京新机场周边交通网络数据做出科学预测.结论如下:①交通网络与机场数据密切联系,机场周边交通网络不断完善;②近期的2025年和远期的2040年,交通网络逐步完善.北京新机场和首都国际机场协同运行,分享着客货流,双方的交通网络数据都会呈现先减后增的趋势.总体上,两机场协同运行的状况,将会改善北京交通压力,提高客货容量.交通网络承载力也大幅上涨;盂2025年新机场大巴里程数约为1510.8km,道路总数约为176条,2040年新机场大巴里程数约1871.9km,道路总数约为187条;榆新机场建设后周围道路建设规模和机场巴士规模可以平缓增加建设.%As an important transportation center, the airport has an important impact on the surrounding traffic network. By the support of airport operation data and airport perimetertraffic network data of the Capital International Airport from 2006 to 2015 at the continuous temporal and spatial scales, based on airport operation data of the new airport in Beijing, using neural network prediction model, we will make scientific prediction on Beijing's new airport traffic network data. Conclusions are as follows: ①The transportation network is closely related to the airport data, and the traffic network around the airport has been improved and will be improved. ②The recent 2025 and forward in 2040, the gradual improvement of the transport network. The new Beijing airport and Beijing Capital International Airport are in cooperation with share of passenger flow, so the traffic network data both decreased before increasing trend. On the whole, with the two airport cooperative operation of the situation, Beijing will improve traffic pressure, improve passenger capacity. Traffic network carrying capacity will also rise sharply. ③New airport bus mileage in 2025 is about 1510.8km, the total number of roads is about 176, in 2040 the new airport bus mileage is about 1871.9km, the total number of roads is about 187. ④After the construction of the new airport, the size of the surrounding airport road construction and the size of the airport bus can be increased gently.

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