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Sensitivity of ozone to precursor emissions in urban Beijing with a Monte Carlo scheme

机译：蒙特卡洛方案对北京市区臭氧对前驱物排放的敏感性

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摘要

In order to understand the formation mechanisms of high surface ozone and identify the main contributor sources in Beijing, this study investigates the sensitivity of surface ozone to NO, NO_2 and nine types of NMVOC emissions during a photochemical smog episode. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis scheme with fifty simulations is established based on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). At every simulation, each of the eleven precursor emissions is perturbed with a distinct set of perturbations. The sensitivities of ozone to emissions are identified by multiple linear regressions. The stability of sensitivity results is validated by two experiments with standard deviations of log-normal perturbations set as 30% and 50% respectively. The sensitivity results suggest that the current high surface ozone is strongly stimulated by NMVOC emissions. Among NMVOC emissions, formaldehyde, ethylene and olefins emissions present the greatest impacts on ozone. On the other hand, NOx emissions have a strong inhibitory effect on ozone formation, even after 50% NOx emission reduction. This indicates that the current ozone formation in Beijing is under NOx-saturated conditions. A transition of ozone formation is observed from NOx-saturated to NOx-limited sensitivity behavior with a 75% reduction of NOx emissions. This study gives the implication that abatement of the four NMVOC types mentioned above could be efficient on reducing the high levels of surface ozone in central urban Beijing, while inadequate abatement in NOx emissions probably induces reverse effects.
机译：为了了解高表面臭氧的形成机理并确定北京的主要来源，本研究调查了光化学烟雾事件中表面臭氧对NO，NO_2和9种NMVOC排放的敏感性。基于嵌套空气质量预测模型系统（NAQPMS），建立了带有五十个模拟的蒙特卡洛灵敏度分析方案。在每个模拟中，十一种前体排放中的每一种都会受到一组独特的扰动所扰动。臭氧对排放的敏感性通过多重线性回归来确定。灵敏度结果的稳定性通过两个实验验证，对数正态摄动的标准偏差分别设置为30％和50％。敏感性结果表明，NMVOC排放强烈刺激了当前的高表面臭氧。在NMVOC排放中，甲醛，乙烯和烯烃的排放对臭氧的影响最大。另一方面，即使减少了50％的NOx排放，NOx排放也对臭氧形成具有很强的抑制作用。这表明北京目前的臭氧形成处于NOx饱和条件下。观察到臭氧形成从饱和的NOx转变为有限的NOx敏感性行为，并使NOx排放减少了75％。这项研究表明，消除上述四种NMVOC类型可以有效降低北京中心城区的高表面臭氧浓度，而减少NOx排放量则可能引起反向效应。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric environment》 |2010年第31期|P.3833-3842|共10页
  • 作者

    Xiao Tang; Zifa Wang; Jiang Zhu; Alex E. Gbaguidi; Qizhong Wu; Jie Li; Tong Zhu;

  • 作者单位

    LAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;

    rnLAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnLAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnLAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnLAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;

    rnLAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

    rnCollege of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    monte carlo method; sensitivity analysis; ozone control strategy; emissions; Beijing;

    机译：蒙特卡洛法敏感性分析;臭氧控制策略;排放北京;

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