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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Water Resources Journal >Assessing the impact of climate change on the frequency of floods in the Red River basin
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Assessing the impact of climate change on the frequency of floods in the Red River basin

机译：评估气候变化对红河流域洪灾发生频率的影响

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The impact of climate change on the frequency distribution of spring floods in the Red River basin is investigated. Several major floods in the last couple of decades have caused major damages and inconvenience to people living in the Red River flood plain south of Winnipeg, and have raised the question of whether climate change is at least partly responsible for what appears to be more frequent occurrences of high spring runoff. To investigate whether this is the case, a regression model is used to associate spring peak flow at the US-Canada border with predictor variables that include antecedent precipitation in the previous fall (used as a proxy for soil moisture at freeze-up), winter snow accumulation and spring precipitation. Data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to derive information about possible changes to the predictor variables in the future, and this information is then used to derive flood distributions for future climate conditions. While mean monthly precipitation during the winter months is expected to increase, winters are expected to be shorter in warmer climates and evaporation losses are expected to be higher, resulting in a net reduction in average snow pack accumulations. On the other hand, precipitation during the active snowmelt period is expected to increase. The average of future flood distributions obtained from an ensemble of 16 climate models is close to the distribution fitted to observed data, but there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the average, highlighting the difficulty in assessing changes in the frequency of extreme events.
机译：研究了气候变化对红河流域春季洪水频率分布的影响。在过去的几十年中发生了几次重大洪水，给居住在温尼伯以南的红河泛滥平原的人们造成了严重的破坏和不便，并提出了一个问题，即气候变化是否至少部分地导致了似乎更频繁发生的事件的春季径流。为了研究这种情况，使用回归模型将美国-加拿大边境的春季高峰流量与包括前一秋季的前期降水（用作冻结期土壤水分的代名词）的预测变量相关联积雪和春季降水。来自耦合模型比较项目-阶段5（CMIP5）的数据用于得出有关未来预测变量可能发生的变化的信息，然后将该信息用于得出未来气候条件的洪水分布。预计冬季月份的平均月降水量会增加，但在温暖的气候下，冬季预计会更短，而蒸发损失预计会更高，从而导致平均积雪量的净减少。另一方面，预计融雪活跃期的降水量会增加。从16个气候模型的集合中获得的未来洪水分布的平均值接近于所观测数据的分布，但是平均值周围存在相当大的不确定性，这突出说明了评估极端事件发生频率变化的难度。

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