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首页> 外文期刊>China Economic Journal >Analysis on factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990-2030)
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Analysis on factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990-2030)

机译：1990-2030年中国农业劳动力在总劳动力中所占份额下降的背后因素分析

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摘要

The agricultural labor share in total labor force is determined by many factors, such as number of new participators and those leaving from labor force and transferring to non-farming. This article estimates the contribution of the determining factors for the changes of agricultural labor share during the period 1990-2030. Given the assumption about the average annual decline of the agricultural labor share in the future, the number of new participators in agricultural labor is estimated to decline from 20.23 million during 2005-2010 to 11.42 million during 2025-2030, and the numbers of leaving and transferring are estimated to change from 42.47 million and 38.32 million to 27.04 million and 29.49 million, respectively, during the same period. The average annual non-farming job creation may decline from 13.938 million to 7.016 million. Given the fact that pressure on agricultural labor transfer and non-farming job creation tends to ease but will exist in the long term. China shall adjust its employment policies from focusing only on quantity expansion to equally stress on a??quantity and quality, speed, and structurea??.View full textDownload full textKeywordsagricultural labor share, entrance, exit, transferJEL codesJ11, J21, J43Related var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; var addthis_config = {"data_track_addressbar":true,"ui_click":true}; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2013.764674
机译：农业劳动力在总劳动力中的份额由许多因素决定，例如新参与者的数量以及那些从劳动力中退出并转移到非农业中的参与者。本文估算了1990-2030年间农业劳动力份额变化的决定性因素的贡献。考虑到未来农业劳动力份额的平均每年下降的假设，估计农业劳动力的新参与者人数将从2005-2010年的2023万减少到2025-2030年的1142万，同期，转移支付预计将从4247万和3832万变为2704万和2949万。每年非农业创造的平均就业机会可能从1393.8万下降到701.6万。鉴于对农业劳动力转移和非农业就业机会的压力趋于缓解，但这种压力将长期存在。中国将调整其就业政策，从只注重数量增长，以同样重视“数量，质量，速度和结构”。 = {ui_cobrand：“泰勒和弗朗西斯在线”，servicescompact：“ citeulike，netvibes，twitter，technorati，delicious，linkedin，facebook，stumbleupon，digg，google，更多”，发布：“ ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b”}； var addthis_config = {“ data_track_addressbar”：true，“ ui_click”：true};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2013.764674

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