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Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

机译：城市供水管网的抗震可靠性评估

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摘要

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non-seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce'survival curves', depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small-scale, network and also on a real-scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity-upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks.
机译：我们提出了在正常或异常条件下运行的供水网络地震风险评估的框架。我们提出一种方法来评估水管网络的可靠性，该方法结合了过去的非地震破坏数据以及网络构件抵抗地震载荷的脆弱性。历史数据是使用每天在整个网络上发生的破坏记录获取的，并进行处理以生成“生存曲线”，描述其随时间的估计生存率。使用美国生命线联盟指南中建议的方法评估网络组件的脆弱性。使用图论评估网络可靠性，而使用蒙特卡洛仿真计算系统网络可靠性。塞浦路斯利马索尔市的供水网络在简单，小规模的网络上以及在实际规模的区域计量地区都展示了所建议的方法。所提出的方法允许估计网络不能提供期望的服务水平的概率，并且允许对与现有水管网络有关的改造干预和能力提升行动进行优先排序。

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