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Roy-model bounds on the wage effects of the Great Migration

机译:罗伊模型的巨大迁徙工资效应

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This paper combines a Roy model of migration and counterfactual wages with racial differences in migration rates during the Great Migration to recover lower bounds on black-white differences in the wage impacts of northward migration. Identification is predicated on the idea that, when migration is more selective for whites, regional wage differentials for whites will be more contaminated with selection bias. In this case, the black-white difference in North-South wage differentials bounds the racial difference in wage impacts from below. Furthermore, as long as the impact of migration on whites' wages is nonnegative, a lower bound on the black-white difference in wage impacts is also a lower bound on the impact itself for blacks. Applying the identification result, I find that northward migration increased blacks' wages by at least 36% more than whites', and hence by at least 36%, on average between 1940 and 1970.
机译:本文结合了迁移率的迁移率的罗伊模型与迁移率的种族差异,在北方迁徙的工资影响中恢复了黑白差异的下限。识别是追求的,当时迁移更具选择性的白人时,白人的区域工资差异将更加污染选择偏差。在这种情况下,南北工资差异的黑白差异界定了下面的工资影响的种族差异。此外,只要迁移对白人工资的影响是非负面的,那么黑白工资冲击的黑白差异的下限也是黑色影响本身的下限。应用鉴定结果,我发现向北迁移增加了黑人的工资,而不是白人的工资,因此至少在1940年至1970年间平均至少36%。

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