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Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach

机译:新兴国家的股票市场波动和汇率:一种马尔可夫状态转换方法

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In this paper we employ a Markov-Switching EGARCH model to investigate the dynamic linkage between stock price volatility and exchange rate changes for four emerging countries over the period 1994-2009. Results distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns. The first corresponds to a high mean-low variance regime and the second regime is characterized by a low mean and a high variance. Moreover, we provide strong evidence that the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is regime dependent and stock-price volatility responds asymmetrically to events in the foreign exchange market. Our results demonstrate that foreign exchange rate changes have a significant impact on the probability of transition across regimes.
机译:在本文中,我们采用Markov-Switching EGARCH模型来研究四个新兴国家在1994-2009年期间的股价波动与汇率变化之间的动态联系。结果在股票收益的条件均值和条件方差上区分了两种不同的制度。第一个对应于高均值-低方差方案,第二个对应于低均值和高方差特征。此外,我们提供了有力的证据,证明了股票和外汇市场之间的关系是依赖于制度的,并且股价波动对外汇市场中的事件非对称地做出响应。我们的结果表明,汇率变动对跨制度过渡的可能性具有重大影响。

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