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Review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies

机译:审查主要工业化经济体的关键国际需求弹性

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This paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower-income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations. It emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000. Emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia, although other important nations like Chile and South Korea are also discussed when studies are available. The review focuses attention on the long-run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed. The terminology often refers to elasticities, or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price (or income), holding constant all other factors that could influence energy-use decisions. Estimates cover petroleum products, natural gas and electricity, although the available studies often ignore coal. They also include the economy-wide impacts (real GDP) to price changes. Most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels; many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation. Based upon the available estimates, price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one (unity) for many countries and sectors, except for the long-run income effect for transportation purposes, which can range widely by country between 0.24 and 1.75 while averaging 0.94 for all countries.
机译:本文对能源需求响应的各种估算进行了有选择的审查,这些估算专门针对低收入工业化经济体而不是较富裕的成熟国家。它强调了2000年后发表的经验研究的最新趋势。重点放在巴西,中国,印度,墨西哥和俄罗斯的五个主要新兴经济体或转型经济体,尽管研究时还讨论了智利和韩国等其他重要国家可用。审查的重点是资本存量周转完成后对价格和收入变化的长期反应。该术语通常指弹性,即能源使用的百分比变化除以价格(或收入)的百分比变化,并使所有可能影响能源使用决策的其他因素保持不变。尽管可用的研究通常忽略了煤炭,但估计涵盖了石油产品,天然气和电力。它们还包括整个经济对价格变化的影响(实际GDP)。大多数研究都集中在液体燃料的家庭和运输用途上。很少有研究调查工业,商业或发电使用的燃料。根据现有估计,对于许多国家和部门来说,液体燃料的价格和收入弹性通常小于一个(统一),但出于运输目的的长期收入影响除外,该影响在不同国家之间可能在0.24至1.75之间变化,而所有国家/地区的平均值为0.94。

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