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Optimal Management of Environmental Externalities with Time Lags and Uncertainty

机译：时滞和不确定性对环境外部性的优化管理

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摘要

Many environmental externalities occur with time lags that can range from a few days to several centuries in length, and many of these externalities are also subject to uncertainty. In this paper, we examine the key features of an optimal policy to manage environmental externalities that are both lagged and stochastic. We develop a two-period, two-polluter model and obtain closed-form solutions for optimal emissions levels under different combinations of damage functions and stochastic processes. These solutions show that it is not obvious whether greater control should be exerted on polluters that generate externalities with longer lags or on polluters that generate externalities with shorter lags. We find that the optimal ranking of polluters with respect to the length of the time lag associated with their externality will depend on (a) the discount rate, (b) conditional expectations of future states of the polluted resource, (c) persistence of the pollutant, and (d) initial conditions.
机译：发生许多环境外部性，时滞的范围可能从几天到几个世纪不等，而且许多这些外部性也存在不确定性。在本文中，我们研究了管理滞后和随机的环境外部性的最优政策的关键特征。我们开发了一个两周期，两污染者模型，并获得了损害函数和随机过程的不同组合下最优排放水平的封闭式解决方案。这些解决方案表明，对滞后时间较长的外部性污染者或滞后时间较短的外部性污染者施加更大的控制权并不明显。我们发现，相对于与其外部性相关的时间滞后的长度，污染者的最佳排名将取决于（a）贴现率，（b）对污染资源的未来状态的条件期望，（c）持久性污染物，以及（d）初始条件。

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