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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental earth sciences >A comprehensive disaster impact assessment of extreme rainfall events under climate change: a case study in Zheng-wen river basin, Taiwan
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A comprehensive disaster impact assessment of extreme rainfall events under climate change: a case study in Zheng-wen river basin, Taiwan

机译：气候变化下极端降雨事件的灾害综合影响评估：以台湾正温河流域为例

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This study ascertains the disaster impacts of extreme rainfall events at the river basin scale. Several numerical models were employed, including TRIGRS for shallow landslide, Flo-2D for debris flow, SOBEK for flooding, and FVCOM for coastline disasters. The connection between numerical models was determined by the input and output data of the scenario. The worst case was selected as the extreme event, i.e. the typhoon event with the most rainfall at the end of the century (2074-2099). Climate change data, including rainfall data, the return period of rainfall events, air pressure, tide data, and sea level were generated after bias correction for the disaster assessment. A river basin with a reservoir was selected as the study area and disaster potential was separately shown for upstream and downstream areas. All disaster impacts are represented on a river basin scale. The result shows that more sediment will affect mountain ways and a large volume of sediment will enter the reservoir. The reservoir is not affected because it has sufficient capacity. The most severe flooding will occur at parts where the main river curves, which are also key areas of mitigation. Finally, the coastline area is at low risk due to the far typhoon track. This result highlights key areas where disaster prevention measures should be implemented during a severe rainfall event.
机译：这项研究确定了流域范围内极端降雨事件的灾害影响。使用了几种数值模型，包括用于浅层滑坡的TRIGRS，用于泥石流的Flo-2D，用于洪水的SOBEK和用于海岸线灾害的FVCOM。数值模型之间的联系由方案的输入和输出数据确定。选择了最坏的情况作为极端事件，即本世纪末（2074-2099）降雨最多的台风事件。在对灾害评估进行偏差校正后，生成了气候变化数据，包括降雨数据，降雨事件的返回期，气压，潮汐数据和海平面。选择有水库的流域作为研究区域，并分别显示了上游和下游地区的潜在灾害。所有灾难影响均以流域尺度表示。结果表明，更多的泥沙将影响山区道路，大量泥沙进入水库。该存储库没有影响，因为它具有足够的容量。最严重的洪水将发生在主要河流弯曲的部分，这也是缓解的关键区域。最后，由于台风较远，海岸线地区的风险较低。该结果突出显示了在严重降雨事件中应采取防灾措施的关键区域。

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