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On the predictability of economic structural change by the Poincare-Bendixson theory

机译:用庞加莱-本迪克森理论论经济结构变化的可预测性

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摘要

Purpose - The three-sector framework (relating to agriculture, manufacturing and services) is one of the major concepts for studying the long-run change of the economic structure. This paper aims to discuss the system-theoretical classification of the structural change in the three-sector framework and, in particular, its predictability by the Poincare-Bendixson theory. Design/methodology/approach - This study compares the assumptions of the Poincare-Bendixson theory to the typical axioms of structural change modeling, the empirical evidence on the geometrical properties of structural change trajectories and the methodological arguments referring to the laws of structural change. Findings - The findings support the assumption that the structural change phenomenon is representable by a dynamical system that is predictable by the Poincare-Bendixson theory. This result implies, among others, that in the long run, structural change is either transitory or cyclical and can be used in further geometrical/topological long-run structural change modeling and prediction. Originality/value - Although widespread in mathematics, geometrical/topological modeling methods have not been used in modeling and prediction of long-run structural change, despite the fact that they seem to be predestined for this purpose owing to their global, system-theoretical nature, allowing for a reduction of ideology content of predictions and greater robustness of results.
机译:目的-三部门框架(涉及农业,制造业和服务业)是研究经济结构的长期变化的主要概念之一。本文旨在讨论三部门框架中结构变化的系统理论分类,尤其是根据庞加莱-本迪克森理论的可预测性。设计/方法论/方法-这项研究将Poincare-Bendixson理论的假设与结构变化建模的典型公理,结构变化轨迹的几何特性的经验证据以及涉及结构变化定律的方法论证进行了比较。研究结果-研究结果支持这样的假设,即结构变化现象可以由Poincare-Bendixson理论可预测的动力学系统表示。该结果除其他外暗示,从长远来看,结构变化既可以是暂时的,也可以是周期性的,并且可以用于进一步的几何/拓扑长期结构变化的建模和预测。独创性/价值-尽管几何/拓扑建模方法在数学中很普遍,但由于其全局的,系统理论的性质似乎注定要用于此目的,因此并未用于长期结构变化的建模和预测,可以减少预测的意识形态内容,并提高结果的可靠性。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2019年第2期|250-265|共16页
  • 作者

    Denis Stijepic;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Macroeconomics, University of Hagen, Hagen, Germany;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Structural change; Application;

    机译:结构变化;应用;

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