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A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

机译：关于城市交通的前瞻性研究：2040年的新加坡

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摘要

Purpose - The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach - To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings - Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value - As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.
机译：目的-任何城市的交通系统都是复杂且不断发展的，它受到各种驱动力以及社会，经济，技术，政治和环境状况的不确定性的影响。仅仅通过推断过去和当前的趋势就无法预测其发展和需求。本文旨在提出一项前瞻性研究，研究城市交通的未来，重点是亚洲人口稠密的新加坡城市国家。目的是通过强调城市交通规划的长期挑战和机遇，为未来的城市交通发展设想方案，以促进未来的政策实施。设计/方法/方法-为了创建未来的方案，作者首先试图通过环境扫描，专家访谈，焦点小组讨论和技术扫描来确定变化的主要驱动力。这些变化的推动力随后被用于情景规划研讨会中，该研讨会被组织成与专家和当地利益相关者共同制定2040年城市交通的替代未来愿景。调查结果-出现了两个场景，称为共享世界和虚拟世界。对于每种情况，作者根据主要的运输方式描述了客运和货运的主要特征。随后，作者讨论了每种方案对个人，社会，行业和政府的可能影响。原创性/价值-随着城市的发展和壮大，城市和交通规划者不仅应解决日常运营问题，而且还应对不断发展的交通系统形成有见识的长期了解，以应对五到十个挑战年视野。通过使用情景计划方法，作者希望为未来的不确定因素所影响的利益相关者做好准备，这些不确定因素是当今决策不断形成的。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2020年第1期|37-52|共16页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    Worldwide College of Business Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach Florida USA and School of Business Singapore University of Social Sciences Singapore;

    University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada and Singapore University of Technology and Design Singapore;

    Department of Engineering Systems and Design Singapore University of Technology and Design Singapore;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Transportation planning; Transport policy; Scenario analysis;

    机译：运输计划;运输政策;情景分析;

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