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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Biometeorology >A 30-day-ahead forecast model for grass pollen in north London, United Kingdom
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A 30-day-ahead forecast model for grass pollen in north London, United Kingdom

机译：英国北部伦敦的30天提前草粉花粉预测模型

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A 30-day-ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen in north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21 May to 8 August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961 to 1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961–1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of 1 to 4; the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of 1 to 4, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002, respectively, when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.
机译：已针对伦敦北部的草粉开发了一种提前30天的预测方法。草花粉季节的总时期由八个多元回归模型涵盖，每个模型涵盖从5月21日至8月8日连续运行的10天时段。这意味着每个30天的预测都使用了三个模型。预测模型是使用1961年至1999年的花粉和环境数据生成的，并使用2000年和2002年的数据进行了测试。模型准确性的判断方法有两种：预测模型能够成功预测严重性的次数（相对于整个1961-1999年数据集）在8个预报时段的每个时段内的花粉计数为1-4。预测模型能够预测草花粉计数高于或低于平均值的次数。当以1到4的等级来预测草花粉计数的相对严重性时，该模型在两个评估年中都达到了62.5％的准确性，这相当于正确预测的八个10天周期中的六个。当预测草花粉计数是高于还是低于平均值时，该模型分别在2000年和2002年获得了87.5％和100％的准确性。尝试在整个草粉花粉季节的不同10天内预测花粉数量是一种新颖的方法。该模型还使用原始方法，利用北大西洋涛动的冬季平均值来预测10天的致敏花粉计数。

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