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Degrees of Uncertainty: An Overview and Framework for Future Research on Experience-Based Choice

机译：不确定度：基于经验的选择的未来研究概述和框架

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摘要

A striking finding has emerged recently in the literature: When decision makers are faced with essentially the same choice, their preferences differ as a function of whether options are described or are "experienced" via observation and feedback. For example, when presented the described choice: (A) A 90% chance of $0 and a 10% chance of $ 10 or (B) $1 for sure, people tend to prefer (A). But when those same two options are experienced through observation of "draws" from two payoff distributions that match the described options, the modal preference reverses. Why? This is just one question that the papers in this special issue address. In addition, they address the rich repertoire of issues that arise when one considers experience-based choices. The decisions-from-experience paradigm-with its focus on the acquisition and integration of information prior to choice, as well the choice itself-taps many of the fundamentals of psychology (learning, memory, encoding, knowledge representation, modelling) thus inspiring novel and fruitful avenues for research. This paper reviews recent research on experience-based choice, and highlights the contribution of the papers in the special issue. The paper introduces a framework that places different types of decisions along a continuum of uncertainty about what one is choosing between, which emphasizes the rich and varied role of "experience" in decision making. It ends by identifying important unsolved questions that are ripe for future research.
机译：最近在文献中出现了一个惊人的发现：当决策者面临基本相同的选择时，他们的偏好会因观察或反馈而描述或“经历”选项而有所不同。例如，当给出所描述的选择时：（A）90％的机会是$ 0，10％的机会是$ 10，或者（B）肯定是$ 1，人们倾向于选择（A）。但是，当通过观察与描述的选项匹配的两个收益分布的“汲取”而经历了相同的两个选项时，模态优先级将反转。为什么？这只是本期特刊中涉及的一个问题。此外，它们还解决了人们在考虑基于经验的选择时出现的各种问题。来自经验的决策范式，侧重于选择之前的信息获取和整合，以及选择本身，这是许多心理学的基础知识（学习，记忆，编码，知识表示，建模），因此启发了小说和富有成果的研究途径。本文回顾了有关基于经验的选择的最新研究，并重点介绍了论文在特刊中的贡献。本文介绍了一个框架，该框架将各种类型的决策置于关于选择哪种决策的不确定性的连续性上，从而强调了“经验”在决策中的丰富多样的作用。最后，找出尚未解决的重要问题，这些问题已为以后的研究奠定了基础。

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