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Mapping competitive prediction capability: Construct conceptualization and performance payoffs

机译：绘制竞争预测能力：构建概念化和绩效收益

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摘要

The strategy literature routinely emphasizes the importance of competitor assessment as part of strategic analysis and planning. In particular, the ability to sense and accurately predict competitors' future moves -referred to here as the competitive prediction capability - can form a basis for sustainable competitive advantage. Yet, managers are not always well-skilled at assessing competitors and often do not accurately anticipate competitors' actions. Apart from human factors that inhibit astute competitive reasoning, managers also lack the motivation to develop a competitive prediction capability because of perceived low payoffs from performing such an activity. Indeed, research has neither fully explicated the rare and difficult-to-develop nature of competitive prediction capability nor offered much empirical evidence of its rent-producing potential. Accordingly, this article conceptualizes competitive prediction as a learned, organizationally-embedded capability and empirically establishes its performance payoffs. Results from a tracking study via the Markstrat simulation show that firms that develop a competitive prediction capability achieve greater improvements in profitability and stock price performance over time. In addition, firms that employ data-driven approaches to competitor assessment make more accurate predictions than do firms that primarily rely on informal intelligence gathered from the grapevine. These findings hold important theoretical and managerial implications.
机译：战略文献通常强调竞争者评估作为战略分析和计划的一部分的重要性。尤其是，感知和准确预测竞争对手未来动作的能力（在此称为竞争预测能力）可以构成可持续竞争优势的基础。然而，管理者在评估竞争对手时并不总是熟练的技能，并且常常不能准确地预测竞争对手的行为。除了阻碍精明的竞争推理的人为因素外，管理者还缺乏发展竞争性预测能力的动力，因为人们从进行这种活动中获得的收益很低。确实，研究既没有充分说明竞争性预测能力的稀有和难以发展的性质，也没有提供任何有关其产生租金潜力的经验证据。因此，本文将竞争性预测概念化为一种学习的，组织内嵌的能力，并根据经验确定其绩效收益。通过Markstrat模拟进行的跟踪研究的结果表明，开发具有竞争性预测能力的公司会随着时间的推移实现更大的利润率和股价表现改善。此外，采用数据驱动方法进行竞争者评估的公司比主要依靠从葡萄藤收集的非正式情报的公司做出更准确的预测。这些发现具有重要的理论和管理意义。

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