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Learning faster than the competition: war games give the advantage

机译：学习比竞争更快：战争游戏具有优势

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摘要

Anyone who has flown on commercial airlines knows about their maze of complicated prices and intricate rules. A well-known international airline, sympathetic to the plight of the flying public, developed a much simpler fare structure for their flights to and from North America. They calculated that the new system would be revenue-neutral because average fares under the new system would roughly match average fares under the old system. They calculated also that the new system would save money by simplifying their internal operations. Managers know how to use market research to predict customers' reactions. How, though, could the airline anticipate its competitors' reactions? The airline would not mind if competitors matched their move because industry prices would not change and costs would be lower. They worried, though, that a price war could break out if even one competitor misinterpreted the new fares as a price cut. Even history was no help: although the airline had ample historical data about fare changes, there was no precedent for their restructuring. How could the airline assess the risk of a price war before committing to the new fare structure?
机译：任何乘坐商业飞机的人都知道他们迷宫般的复杂价格和复杂规则。一家同情飞行公众困境的国际知名航空公司为往返于北美的航班开发了一种更为简单的票价结构。他们计算出新系统将是收入中立的，因为新系统下的平均票价将大致与旧系统下的平均票价匹配。他们还计算出，新系统将通过简化内部操作来节省资金。管理人员知道如何使用市场研究来预测客户的反应。但是，航空公司如何预计其竞争对手的反应？航空公司不会介意竞争对手是否跟上他们的举动，因为行业价格不会改变并且成本会更低。不过，他们担心，即使有一个竞争对手将新票价误解为降价，也可能爆发一场价格战。甚至历史记录也无济于事：尽管该航空公司拥有关于票价变动的大量历史数据，但其重组没有先例。在采用新票价结构之前，航空公司如何评估价格战的风险？

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