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Spatial radiative feedbacks from internal variability using multiple regression

机译：使用多元回归的内部变异性空间辐射反馈

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摘要

The sensitivity of the climate to CO_2 forcing depends on spatially varying radiative feedbacks that act both locally and nonlocally. We assess whether a method employing multiple regression can be used to estimate local and nonlocal radiative feedbacks from internal variability. We test this method on millennial-length simulations performed with six coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Given the spatial pattern of warming, the method does quite well at recreating the top-of-atmosphere flux response for most regions of Earth, except over the Southern Ocean where it consistently overestimates the change, leading to an overestimate of the sensitivity. For five of the six models, the method finds that local feedbacks are positive due to cloud processes, balanced by negative nonlocal shortwave cloud feedbacks associated with regions of tropical convection. For four of these models, the magnitudes of both are comparable to the Planck feedback, so that changes in the ratio between them could lead to large changes in climate sensitivity. The positive local feedback explains why observational studies that estimate spatial feedbacks using only local regressions predict an unstable climate. The method implies that sensitivity in these AOGCMs increases over time due to a reduction in the share of warming occurring in tropical convecting regions and the resulting weakening of associated shortwave cloud and longwave clear-sky feedbacks. Our results provide a step toward an observational estimate of time-varying climate sensitivity by demonstrating that many aspects of spatial feedbacks appear to be the same between internal variability and the forced response.
机译：气候对CO_2强制的敏感性取决于在本地和非局部起作用的空间变化的辐射反馈。我们评估采用多元回归的方法是否可用于从内部变异性估计本地和非识别辐射反馈。我们在用六个耦合的大气 - 海洋一般循环模型（AOGCMS）执行的千禧一代模拟上测试该方法。鉴于变暖的空间模式，除了在南部海洋上，该方法在重新创造大多数地球区域的大多数地区的全部气息响应方面表现得很好，除了南洋之外，它一直高估了这种变化，导致敏感度高估。对于六种型号中的五种，该方法发现由于云过程，由云流程平衡，与热带对流区域相关的负数非局部短波反馈平衡。对于这些模型中的四种，两者的幅度与普朗克反馈相当，因此它们之间的比率的变化可能导致气候敏感性的大变化。积极的本地反馈解释为什么使用只有当地回归估计空间反馈的观察研究预测了不稳定的气候。该方法意味着由于在热带对流区域中发生的升温的份额和相关的短波云和龙波清空反馈的削弱，这些方法中的灵敏度随着时间的推移而增加。我们的结果通过证明内部变异性和强制响应之间的空间反馈的许多方面具有相同的空间反馈的许多方面，提供了朝向时变气候敏感度的观察估计的一步。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2103-2103|共1页
  • 作者

    J. Bloch- Johnson; M. Rugenstein; D.S. Abbot;

  • 作者单位

    NCAS- Climate University of Reading Reading United Kingdom;

    NCAS- Climate University of Reading Reading United Kingdom;

    NCAS- Climate University of Reading Reading United Kingdom;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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