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PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALLYSIS OF THE A ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION MODULE IN THE COSYMA PACKAGE

机译:毛囊包装中大气扩散和沉积模量的概率事故后果不确定性分析

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摘要

The uncertainty analysis is described of the atmospehric dispersion and deposition module of COSYMA, describing both the methods of obtaining distributions on the input parameters and the results of the analysis. The uncertianty distributions on the input parameter values were obtained using formal techniuqes of expert judgement elicitation. The aim of the module analysis was to identiy those parameters whose uncertainty makeks major contributions to the overall uncertainty, and which should be included in the final analysis of the whole COSYMA system.
机译:描述了COSYMA大气分散和沉积模块的不确定性分析,描述了获得输入参数分布的方法和分析结果。使用专家判断推导的形式技术获得输入参数值的不可靠分布。模块分析的目的是确定那些不确定性对整体不确定性有重大贡献的参数,这些参数应包括在整个COSYMA系统的最终分析中。

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