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PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE LATE HEALTH EFFECTS MODULE IN THE COSYMA PACKAGE

机译:Cosyma包中最新健康效应模块的概率事故后果不确定性分析

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摘要

The unceertinty analysis is described of the late health effects module of COSYMA, describing both the methods of obtaining distributions on the input parameters and the resutls of the analysis. The uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values were obtained using formal expert judgement elicitation techniques. The aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes major contributions to the overall unceertianty, and which should be included in the final analysis of the whole COSYMA package.
机译:描述了COSYMA的后期健康影响模块的不确定性分析,描述了获得输入参数分布的方法和分析结果。使用正式的专家判断启发技术获得了输入参数值的不确定性分布。模块分析的目的是确定那些参数,这些参数的不确定性对总体不确定性有重大影响,应将其包含在整个COSYMA软件包的最终分析中。

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