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EXPERT JUDGEMENT FOR A PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

机译：概率事故后果不确定性分析的专家判断

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摘要

The development of two probabilistic accidnet consequence codes sponsored by the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commision, COSYMA and MACCS respectively, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks and other endopints associated with accidents from hypothesised nuclear installations. In 1991, both Commisions sponsored a joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes. The main objective of this joint project was systematically to derive credible and traceable probabiltiy distributions for the respective code input variables. These input distributions will subsequently be used in two uncertainty analyses foreach code separately. A formal expert judgement elicitation and evaluation process was used as the best available technique to accomplish that objective. This paper shows the overall process and reports on experiences of elicitors and experts of the eight expert judgement exercises performed under the joint study.
机译：分别由欧洲委员会和美国核监管委员会，COSYMA和MACCS发起的两个概率事故征候后果代码的开发工作已于1990年完成。这些代码估计了与假设的核装置事故相关的风险和其他内因。 1991年，两个委员会都发起了一个联合项目，对这两个代码进行不确定性分析。该联合项目的主要目标是系统地得出各个代码输入变量的可信和可追溯的概率分布。这些输入分布随后将分别用于每个代码的两次不确定性分析中。正式的专家判断启发和评估过程被用作实现该目标的最佳可用技术。本文展示了整个过程，并报告了在联合研究下进行的八次专家判断练习中引发者和专家的经验。

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